October 31, 2021 – Park City, UT 3rd Quarter Market Stats per the PCMLS
The remarkable rise in homes sold and sale prices that we experienced in the latter half of 2020 continued unabated through the 3rd Quarter of 2021. Sale prices showed strong appreciation with increases in both average (Up 26%) and median (Up 17%) prices as well as dollar volume (Up 80%) across the primary market of Summit and Wasatch Counties, as reported by the Park City Board of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service. Fears that the market might be overheated and that the boom could foretell another housing market balloon just before a crash to rival 2008 were quelled by consistent financial indicators pointing to a sustained bull market in housing.
A year ago, the 3rd Quarter began with the stay-at-home restrictions starting to be relaxed, and the market reacted strongly with buyers coming out in droves. Open houses were resumed, and in-person showings once again became possible. Sales activity rebounded and the quarter finished with record breaking totals. The sales spurt continued for the next twelve months until June 2021, with each month’s sales numbers exceeding those of the previous year.
The pent-up demand for homes was finally satisfied by mid-summer and beginning in July weekly sales tallies fell short of the same week in 2020. However, the volume of contracts and sales prices in the previous twelve months was enough to guarantee that, even with a slight slowdown in the pace of the purchases, when 2021 ends, the market will again set a new record for number of homes sold, total sales volume, and average/median price appreciation.
Price appreciation continues to be driven by a substantial shortage of available inventory. Pending contracts continue to far outstrip new listings coming to market. PCMLS active inventories peaked in May 2020 at just over 2,000 listings, and has been on a steady downhill slide ever since. At the end of September 2021, there were only 394 residential properties for sale across the entire marketplace, an 80% decline from the year earlier.
Some neighborhoods always fare better than others, and the results for 3rd Quarter 2021 were no exception. Not a single major market area had any negative sales results to report when comparing the 12-month rolling averages with the same period the year before. Within Park City limits, sales were up 30% and sale prices jumped 22-28%. In the Snyderville Basin, sales climbed 23%, with average and median prices spiking 44% and 34% respectively.
New listings and listing inventory, however, were a totally different story, with both dropping to historic lows. Comparing the 12-months ending September 30, 2021, to the same period in 2020:
• New residential listings for the 3rd Quarter of this year were 884, down 33% from the 1,243 in 2020.
• With less inventory to sell, Pending sales were also down. PCMLS members signed 1,078 purchase contracts in Q3-2021, nearly one-third fewer than the 1,506 in Q3-2020. Those few homes coming to market, were snatched up almost immediately, thereby maintaining the dramatic drop in inventory.
• With Pendings running higher than New Listings, available inventory started to shrink even more dramatically. 384 properties were active at the end of Q3, compared to 459 at the end of Q2. The Active Inventory is barely more than 20% of our pre-Covid low water mark (1,715) in December 2017.
How did the local market fare? Here is our take on the total year-long results reported on a rolling year-over year basis for the period ending September 30, 2021.
SINGLE FAMILY HOMES:
• Within Park City Limits, total unit sales were up 30% over 2020 to 297 units, while sales volume climbed 58% from $622 million last year to almost $1 billion this year.
• The median price of a single-family home across the City rose 28% to $2.93 million.
• In the popular Old Town area, units sold jumped 67% (67 to 112) and sales volume nearly doubled (to $267 million) as the median price topped $2.2 million.
• The Thaynes Canyon neighborhood bumped Aerie for the grand prize for greatest increase in median price, nearly doubling over the year earlier to $4.1 million.
• Snyderville residents saw a spike in sales volume (up 23%) while the median price tracked equally well, up 34% to $1.9 million.
• Promontory led the Snyderville neighborhoods in sales units (145, up 42%) and dollar volume ($487M, up 91%) while Canyons Village saw the biggest price increase with the median in that neighborhood passing $11.7M, up 89% year over year.
• The hotspots south and east of the metro area around the Jordanelle reservoir continued to be popular. Deer Mountain nearly doubled its sales volume on a 55% increase in median sale price of $1.8 million. Prices were particularly robust in the Tuhaye/Hideout area, where the median rose 36% to $2.6 million.
• Heber Valley saw a slight dip in sales units, but 39% higher sales volume propelled by a median price that jumped 39% to $835,000.
• The Condo market in Old Town Park City continued to be solid with sales up (45%) in units on a modest gain in median price of 7% to $729,000.
• Empire Pass was the standout neighborhood performer with sales nearly tripling, driving the median price over $3.0 million, up 34%.
• Lower Deer Valley sales were very strong. Units sold more than doubled and sales volume more than tripled, as the median price jumped 28% to $1.4 million.
• In the Snyderville area, outside of perennial volume leader Canyons Village, Pinebrook led in unit sales (96, up 118%) while Sun Peak/Bear Hollow and Kimball tied for the sales volume lead at $50 million.
• In Wasatch County, Jordanelle Park, Tuhaye, Hideout, and South Jordanelle all saw gains of 100% or more in sales volume, with Jordanelle Park leading the price gain parade, up 97% to $660,000.
• Land sales exploded in the 3rd Quarter, as buyers who could not find an existing home to their liking elected instead to build their own. The summer spike in lumber prices abated somewhat, but still many buyers had to defer the groundbreaking until some time in the future because of the backlog of pending orders by most new home builders.
• Sales units and dollar volume were both up triple digit percentages in many primary service areas, including Snyderville Basin and the Jordanelle.
• Overall land sales in Summit and Wasatch counties were up 76%. The price increase expected when supply decreased and demand remained steady pushed the median sales price for land region wide up 71% to $490,000.
• Snyderville Basin and Jordanelle areas both saw sales units doubling the previous year. Jordanelle led the way with 466 lots sold on a median price rise to $450,000 (up 57%).
• Jordanelle, Park City Metro, Snyderville, and Heber Valley all saw a substantial increase in sales volume and units sold for 2021.
• Only 49 lots sold within the Park City Limits and the City saw the least price appreciation as average and median sale prices rose 6% and 20% respectively.
OPINION & OBSERVATION:
What do Park City agents see coming in the next three to six months? Here are a few observations about market results from those with their fingers on the pulse of the market.
ON SINGLE FAMILY HOMES:
• Some of the areas that saw only modest price increases this past year were those that were most highly sold last summer after the initial Covid shutdown was over and demand spiked. The run-up last year set the benchmark that is harder to match this year.
• Park Meadows replaced Prospector as the most stable neighborhood in the Park City Metro Area, with prices remaining relatively stable compared to the other highly appreciating neighborhoods.
• Within the Park City Limits, the volume of sales rose more than 50%, and it now costs almost $3 million (median sale price) to buy a house in town in Park City.
• In the near north neighborhoods that make up Snyderville Basin, Pinebrook and Jeremy Ranch continue to be two of the more popular areas with 48 and 77 sales respectively (exceeded by only Promontory in total number of sales).
• Deer Mountain, once thought of as a more affordable area around the Jordanelle, now has nearly as many homes selling for over $2 million as sold for less than $2 million. That’s a new, upward trend.
• Sellers are getting more aggressive as the market continues to expand. When we see offers that fall out followed immediately by a list price increase, we know we’re in a hot market.
• New construction in the Park City area has now risen to $1500 to $2500 per square foot…a new market high.
In a superb example of how dramatically this market is changing, Rick Klein, local lender and long-time contributor to our agents’ understanding of market statistics called the 3rd Quarter performance, “Nothing short of stunning in its scope.” As an example of the magnitude of the change, Rick compared market times for Single Family homes sold in 2nd Quarter to those in the 3rd Quarter, broken down by price range.
At the end of 2nd Quarter this year (2021), the median price of a single-family home in Park City was just over $2.7 million, with an average market time was 1.5 months. Homes priced below the median sold on average in 0.8 months (that’s 24 days) while those above the median sold in 2.2 months.
• One used to say you could still get a condo in Old Town at a reasonably low price. Now the median price for a condo in Old Town is $730,000, and in the Prospector area, it’s over $250,000 for the very first time. Overall, within the Park City Limits, the median price for a condo is now $1.25 million, up 46% year over year.
• In the Canyons, Lift and Apex were in play for 2020, and now we have Yotel in play in 2021, with smaller units and lower prices. This is skewing the average and median prices downward significantly but may not be an accurate representative of the entire area.
ON VACANT LAND:
• Land sales nearly tripled over the previous year in the primary market of Summit and Wasatch Counties. 1,309 lots sold, a jump of 76%, and with a Median sale price climb of 71% to $490,000. Total sales fell just shy of $1 Billion is aggregate compared to $368 million for the year prior.
Real estate in the Wasatch back consists of highly segmented markets with nuances that vary significantly from one neighborhood to another and one house to another. Comparisons are hard to read on paper due to the unique features of individual properties, such as amenities, condition, style, location, age, view, and inventory. Buyers and Sellers are advised to contact a local Park City Board of REALTORS® Professional for the most accurate, detailed, and current information.