November 1, 2022 – The wild price and sales swings that buyers and sellers have witnessed over the past two years seem to be moderating as the market returns to a more “normal” seasonal pattern. Listing inventory is rising, prices are starting to level off as mortgage interest rates climb. Buyers are becoming more hesitant to make instant offers above asking price and sellers are reacting by lowering those asking prices in much greater numbers.
Sale prices for single-family homes in the primary market area of Summit and Wasatch Counties as reported by the Park City Board of REALTORS® Multiple Listing Service for the year ending September 30 showed moderate increases in both average (Up 7%) and median (Up 3%). For the year earlier, those increases were 40% and 50% respectively.
The rate of sales (number of units sold) and the overall dollar volume dropped 30% for single-family homes and 27% for condominiums from the year prior. Fears that the market might be overheated, reinforced by a continuing rise in interest rates, supply chain difficulties, and other inflation indicators (gas prices), slowed sales across the region.
Price appreciation continues to be driven by lower available inventory, but that trend is reversing. As of January of this year, there were only 287 residential properties for sale across the region and many of those were still under construction. That number jumped to 836 by September as more sellers feared they might miss out on a nice profit and put their properties on the market. Keep in mind, however, that number is about half of the normal inventory in PCMLS prior to the pandemic.
Park City neighborhoods vary widely in price comparison and the Q3-year over year results continued that pattern.
For Single Family homes, all but one of the major areas that make up the greater Park City market showed drops in units sold through 3rd quarter of 2022 versus 2021. The exception was the South Jordanelle area where a number of new developments are being built in anticipation of the Mayflower Mountain resort project opening in the near future. Sales in South Jordanelle increased 44% over the previous year, albeit at a lower median price point of $1.7 million, down from $2.5 million the year prior.
Condo sales prices were strong across the entire market range. But total sales volume declined in all areas primarily due to a lack of inventory to sell. Within Park City limits, condo sales volume was down 29% but median sale prices rose 18%. In the Snyderville Basin, total sales climbed 28% because average and median prices both rose more than 50%.
Comparing the 12-months ending September 30, 2022, to the same period in 2021:
- New residential listings (single-family and condo) year-to-date are showing signs of recovery after a lengthy period of declines. For the nine months ending September 2022, total new residential listings were 2,511, down just 96 from the same period the year before.
- The market is cooling off after an overheated two years of sales. PCMLS members signed 1,802 purchase contracts in the nine months ending 9-30-22, 42% fewer than the previous year (3,124)
- With New Listings running slightly higher than Pending contracts, available inventory started to increase. Only 265 residential properties were active at the end of 2021. That number boomed to 856 as of September 30, an increase of 223% so far this year.
Overall, how did the local market fare? Here is our take on the total year-long results reported on a rolling year-over-year basis for the period ending September 30, 2022.
Single Family Homes
Overall sales units across the primary market area (Summit & Wasatch counties) dropped 30%. A 3% rise in median sales price to $1.59M was not enough to offset the volume drop. Total sales volume declined 25% from the prior year. Through Q3-22, the $2.56 Billion in total sales was down from the Q3-21 Y-o-Y total of $3.39 Billion.
Highlights of the single-family home market:
- Within Park City Limits, total unit sales were down 54% over Q3-21 to 133 units but sales volume declined just 37% to $613 million this year.
- The median price of a single-family home within Park City limits rose 33% to $3.9 million.
- In the popular Old Town area units were down 71% (110 to 32) as the median price set a new record above $3.6 million (+63%).
- The Prospector neighborhood led all others for greatest increase in median price, 54% year over year to $2.6 million.
- Snyderville residents followed the prevailing market with sales volume (down 33%) on just a modest gain in the overall median price up 5% to $2.0 million. All but two Snyderville neighborhoods (Kimball Junction and Silver Creek South) saw declines in units sold with Jeremy Ranch dropping the most (60%) to 31 units. Silver Creek South had the biggest gain with 22 homes sold, up 69%.
- Nearly one-third of overall sales volume was in Promontory ($309 million) while Jeremy Ranch and Old Ranch Road areas saw the biggest price increases with the median prices rising 53% and 44% respectively. The median sale price in Old Ranch Road rose to $6.9 million, second highest in the region behind Canyons Village ($9.6 million).
- The Heber and Kamas valleys showed substantial median price increases of 25% and 31%, respectively.
Despite fluctuations in the regional markets, Single Family sales activity in the primary market area was markedly down compared to the year prior with sales volume off 25% while median prices were up 3% year over year.
| Single Family Summary End of Q3 2022 | Qty Sold | % Chg | Sales Volume | % Chg | Average Price | % Chg | Median Price | % Chg |
| Park City | 133 | -54% | 612,721,690 | -37% | 4,606,930 | 36% | 3,900,000 | 33% |
| Snyderville Basin | 327 | -39% | 978,059,000 | -33% | 2,991,006 | 10% | 2,000,000 | 5% |
| Jordanelle | 148 | 44% | 320,175,509 | 23% | 2,163,348 | -14% | 1,722,937 | -32% |
| Heber Valley | 292 | -25% | 419,561,669 | -10% | 1,436,855 | 19% | 1,042,500 | 25% |
| Kamas Valley | 122 | -17% | 177,967,138 | -0% | 1,458,747 | 20% | 1,188,642 | 31% |
| Wanship/Hoytsville | 54 | -22% | 49,893,500 | -1% | 923,953 | 27% | 705,000 | 18% |
| Total Primary Market Area* | 1,077 | -30% | 2,559,653,507 | -25% | 2,376,651 | 7% | 1,590,000 | 3% |
| Total Overall MLS Area | 1,231 | -29% | 2,738,016,336 | -24% | 2,224,221 | 6% | 1,450,000 | 0% |
* Primary Market totals include only Summit and Wasatch counties.
Condominiums
- No neighborhood was immune to the drop. But Aerie and Deer Crest both dropped to single digit unit sales.
- Price gains were nearly uniform across all neighborhoods, with only Upper Deer Valley Resort declining (4%). Old Town and Prospector led the gainers, up 68% and 62% respectively.
- In the Snyderville area, outside of perennial volume leader Canyons Village, Silver Creek South and Silver Springs led in sales volume increases (107% and 60% respectively) while other Snyderville neighborhoods saw sales decline due to lack of inventory.
- In Wasatch County, (areas with 10 or more sales are reported) Jordanelle Park doubled its sales volume over the prior year on a substantial gain in median price, up 48% to $976,000.
| Condominium Summary End of Q3 2022 | Qty Sold | % Chg | Sales Volume | % Chg | Average Price | % Chg | Median Price | % Chg |
| Park City | 342 | -40% | 681,589,864 | -29% | 1,992,952 | 18% | 1,500,000 | 20% |
| Snyderville Basin | 546 | -16% | 674,812,990 | 28% | 1,235,921 | 53% | 1,049,500 | 70% |
| Jordanelle | 236 | -19% | 248,716,002 | 4% | 1,053,881 | 29% | 964,005 | 24% |
| Heber Valley | 35 | -47% | 21,388,585 | -33% | 611,102 | 26% | 496,000 | 30% |
| Kamas Valley | 3 | -50% | 1,638,500 | -46% | 546,166 | 8% | 600,000 | 20% |
| Total Primary Market Area* | 1,163 | -27% | 1,629,005,943 | -8% | 1,401,898 | 26% | 1,050,000 | 38% |
| Total Overall MLS Area | 1,199 | -28% | 1,649,756,363 | -9% | 1,377,092 | 26% | 1,035,000 | 38% |
* Primary Market totals include only Summit and Wasatch counties.
Vacant Land
After explosive growth in the year ending 12/31, Land sales declined across the region with every major area showing drops in units sold. Total sales volume dropped in all areas except Jordanelle where sales volume was up 48% on prices that shot up 61% from the year prior.
- Jordanelle showed the most activity selling 431 lots this past year. The median sale price was $726,000, up from $450,000 the year before.
- Overall land sales in Summit and Wasatch counties were down 35%, however, the price increases expected when supply decreases and demand remains steady pushed the median sales price for lots region wide up 42% to $695,000.
- All the major areas of the market saw a drop in units sold. Snyderville, Heber Valley and Wanship/Hoytsville were hit the hardest, dropping by half from the previous year’s total.
- Only 35 lots sold within the Park City Limits, but that lack of available lots coupled with high demand pushed the median sale price for the few that did sell to $2.1 million, up 45% from the year before.
| Land Sales Summary End of Q1-2022 | Qty Sold | % Chg | Sales Volume | % Chg | Average Price | % Chg | Median Price | % Chg |
| Park City | 35 | -29% | 82,896,000 | -1% | 2,368,457 | 39% | 2,100,000 | 45% |
| Snyderville Basin | 124 | -62% | 166,733,100 | -59% | 1,344,621 | 9% | 930,500 | 25% |
| Jordanelle | 431 | -8% | 411,417,020 | 48% | 954,563 | 61% | 726,200 | 61% |
| Heber Valley | 144 | -48% | 100,620,445 | -25% | 698,753 | 45% | 499,500 | 67% |
| Kamas Valley | 79 | -26% | 50,288,800 | -41% | 636,567 | -21% | 425,000 | 15% |
| Wanship/Hoytsville | 40 | -49% | 23,604,850 | 81% | 590,121 | 252% | 362,500 | 284% |
| Total Primary Market Area* | 853 | -35% | 833,745,215 | -17% | 977,427 | 28% | 695,000 | 42% |
| Total Overall MLS Area | 901 | -34% | 882,559,665 | -16% | 979,533 | 27% | 692,900 | 41% |
* Primary Market totals include only Summit and Wasatch counties and are not totals for all areas.
Opinion and Observation
What do Park City agents see coming in the next three to six months? Here are a few observations about the important market results that point the way coming from those with their fingers on the pulse of the market.
ON SINGLE FAMILY HOMES
- In looking at the year-long numbers, we may be missing the change in the market that occurred in the March-April timeframe. Activity in the most recent six months was dramatically different from activity in the prior six-month period.
- The erratic stock market has had an effect on buyers’ willingness to purchase right now. Likewise, we expect to see more activity after this year’s election is over and some of the uncertainty is eased.
- Lots of “wait and see” buyers waiting for their stock portfolios to recover.
- The lack of inventory is more prevalent in the higher end of the market, over $3 Million. Asking prices are more ambitious in this range than in the market in general, resulting in fewer offers.
- There is significant inventory being planned in Heber Valley that will probably come to market in the next year. Look for a jump in activity around Heber City, particularly to the north of town.
- We are slowly returning to a more balanced market, much closer to what was happening pre-COVID, both in terms of number of sales and sale prices.
- It’s important not to use the broader market trends to paint every local neighborhood. The market is highly segmented, and each neighborhood in Park City has unique values, and unique pricing trends.
What are the key takeaways from this quarter’s numbers?
- Inventory: finally improving. Since the end of 2021, inventory has increased from 287 to 836 properties for sale, but are still about half of the pre-pandemic levels.
- Demand is slowing. Q3-2022 sale transactions were down 30% from Q3-2021. Condo sales are down 27%; Single-Family down 30%; Vacant Land down 35%.
- Pending sales are back to 2019 levels or below. Demand is waning in the face of 7% mortgage interest rates, which are likely to keep rising in 2023.
- Affordability is becoming more of a challenge with both interest rates and sale prices continuing to go upward. If sellers and buyers ever needed expert advice from their Realtor to make sense of this rapidly changing market, now is the time.
Real estate in the Wasatch back consists of highly segmented markets with nuances that vary significantly from one neighborhood to another and one house to another. Comparisons are hard to read on paper due to the unique features of individual properties, such as amenities, condition, style, location, age, view, and inventory. Buyers and Sellers are advised to contact a local Park City Board of REALTORS® Professional for the most accurate, detailed, and current information.